Key takeaways
- A genuine occupancy figure traces to somewhere, a platform like AirDNA, a government statistics agency like DANE, an industry association like Camacol, or a specific documented census.
- Occupancy in a seasonal tourism market like the Guatapé area varies considerably across the year, holiday periods, weekends, and ordinary weekdays all producing meaningfully different numbers.
- An occupancy figure covering 600 units across a defined regional corridor tells you something meaningfully different than one drawn from 5 unrelated properties, or one that doesn't specify its geographic scope at all.
- A occupancy or return figure that requires booking a sales call to actually hear, rather than being published openly on a website or in marketing material, should raise a specific question: why isn't this number simply stated, if it's genuinely accurate and sourced?
- Phrases like "guaranteed returns," an unattributed specific percentage with no supporting detail, or a round, suspiciously clean number presented with high confidence and no methodology, are common patterns across real estate marketing generally, not unique to any single market.
To evaluate an occupancy claim from a Colombian developer or marketer, check for 5 specific things: a named data source, a stated date range, a defined geographic sample, a methodology explanation, and whether the number is published openly rather than gated behind a sales call.
Why this checklist exists: most occupancy claims in this market fail it
| What a credible claim shows | What an unsourced claim looks like instead |
|---|---|
| Named source (AirDNA, DANE, Camacol, a specific census) | No source cited at all |
| Specific date range (e.g. "Jan-Nov 2025") | Vague or absent timeframe |
| Defined sample (unit count, geographic area) | No stated sample size or scope |
| Published, freely accessible | Requires booking a call to hear the number |
Calculator · True cost to close
What does it really cost to close?
Notarial, registration and beneficencia on your price, in USD and COP. No account, no email.
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- Notarial fee0.27%, buyer's customary half
- Registration tax0.67%
- Beneficencia1.00%
- Stamp tax (timbre)Marginal, only on the slice above COP 1,047,480,000; negotiated at the notary
- Total in COP
Your lawyer's fee for title review isn't included here, that figure is theirs to give you.
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Why a named source is the single most important check
A genuine occupancy figure traces to somewhere, a platform like AirDNA, a government statistics agency like DANE, an industry association like Camacol, or a specific documented census. If a number can't be traced to any of these, or to a comparably credible named source, it's an assertion, not data, regardless of how confidently it's presented. This is the single fastest filter for separating real numbers from marketing claims.
Why the date range matters as much as the source itself
Occupancy in a seasonal tourism market like the Guatapé area varies considerably across the year, holiday periods, weekends, and ordinary weekdays all producing meaningfully different numbers. A figure with no stated date range could be cherry-picked from the single strongest month of the year, presented as if it represents a typical, sustainable rate. A credible claim states its measurement period explicitly, generally spanning most or all of a calendar year to smooth out this seasonality.
Why sample size and geography change what a number actually means
An occupancy figure covering 600 units across a defined regional corridor tells you something meaningfully different than one drawn from 5 unrelated properties, or one that doesn't specify its geographic scope at all. A number presented as if it applies specifically to Guatapé, when its actual underlying sample is a broader regional area that doesn't include Guatapé itself, is a real and common category of misleading presentation, even when the underlying data source is genuinely credible.
Why gated numbers deserve extra skepticism
A occupancy or return figure that requires booking a sales call to actually hear, rather than being published openly on a website or in marketing material, should raise a specific question: why isn't this number simply stated, if it's genuinely accurate and sourced? Legitimate, well-documented data generally doesn't need to be gated behind a conversion funnel, since the source and methodology speak for themselves regardless of who's asking.
The specific red-flag language patterns worth watching for
Phrases like "guaranteed returns," an unattributed specific percentage with no supporting detail, or a round, suspiciously clean number presented with high confidence and no methodology, are common patterns across real estate marketing generally, not unique to any single market. Learning to recognize these patterns protects a buyer regardless of which specific property or development is making the claim.
What to actually do once you spot an unsourced claim
Ask directly: what's the source, what's the date range, what's the sample. A legitimate answer comes readily; an evasive or vague response is itself useful information. Comparing any specific claim against publicly available regional benchmarks, like documented STR investment fundamentals for the broader area, gives an independent reference point rather than relying solely on what one interested party tells you.
Why this same standard should apply to every number you see, including ours
The standard described here, name the source, state the date range, define the sample, publish openly, should apply to any claim you encounter, including figures published by any specific agency or agent. Holding every source to the same transparency bar is what actually protects a buyer, not simply trusting whichever source happens to be the most polished.
Does a lack of a published methodology always mean the number is false?
Not necessarily false, but unverifiable, which means it shouldn't carry the same weight in your decision-making as a properly sourced figure.
Should I ask for this information in writing rather than verbally?
Yes, a written source and methodology is harder to walk back or reinterpret later than a verbal claim made during a sales conversation.
What if the developer says the data is proprietary and can't be shared?
This is a reasonable position for genuinely competitive data, but it also means the claim can't be independently verified, which should factor into how much weight you give it.
A working checklist you can actually use in a real conversation
| Question to ask | What a credible answer sounds like |
|---|---|
| "What's the source of this number?" | A specific, named platform or agency, not "industry data" left vague |
| "What date range does it cover?" | A specific window, ideally close to a full year |
| "What's the sample size and area?" | A specific unit count and defined geography |
| "Can I see this in writing?" | A willingness to provide documentation, not just a verbal assurance |
Keeping these 4 questions ready for any conversation with a developer, agent, or marketer discussing potential returns turns a passive listener into an active evaluator, which is exactly the posture a serious investment decision deserves.
How this connects directly to evaluating your own honest yield math
Once a claim passes this checklist, source named, date range stated, sample defined, published openly, the next step is running it through a full gross-to-net breakdown rather than treating the raw occupancy or yield figure as the final answer on its own.
Talk to a Guatape Properties agent about your specific plans.
Who wrote this
Real estate broker · writes for the network · Real estate broker, Guatapé and eastern Antioquia. Specializing in Guatapé and El Peñol, Antioquia, Colombia. Founder of Mike Zapata Real Estate and the guide behind the Guatapé Properties and Guatapé Finca Raíz portals.